ZNR Premier D54 - Game Analysis

Interesting games. Ended up 3-3, with my son playing the last game. I was playing on his account, since I got a draft token when they were on sale in the Arena store. I didn't think this run was very noteworthy until I thought about why I lost. This is why I do this blog, mostly for me. Some day, somebody will read this and say "wow that was obvious". I hope that person will be me. There's something not clicking for me at the moment but I see little points where I have some a-ha moments, hopefully a few below. ​

Game 1 (Win vs WB Party on Play)
MVP: Sneaking Guide - though my threats went wide
Hit the curve perfectly. Good combo of Fliers and 2 Sneaking Guides with a Packbeast and Blackbloom Rogue. OP's deck was a WB party deck, which feels like in hindsight my deck is. It was nice that OP cast a Farsight Adept to give me a card, and then I Roil Eruption'ed it on my turn.

Lessons learned/reinforced: 

• Hitting curve makes a huge difference
• Have multiple threat vectors (fliers/unblockable creatures)
• From OP deck, I was waiting for something more scary when they were about to play and saw some replacement cards come out. 

Game 2 (Win vs WB Party on Draw)
MVP: Nighthawk Scavenger
Not much to report on this because the OP was stuck on 2 lands for most of the game. But Nighthawk Scavenger is very good. I didn't record this game but it would have been interesting. I was using Feed the Swarm and Skydancer to fill their graveyard BEFORE attacking as Nighthawk Scavenger wanted a variety of cards in graveyard. So lucky for me the OP was stuck on 2 lands and I could play with that very good card for the first time. 

Sorry I didn't record this game.

Game 3 (Loss vs WB Party on Play)
MVP: Attended Healer for OP
I used a Feed the Swarm on a Sell-Sword. In hindsight, this card has no value. Yes it's 3 damage but there are multiple ways to deal with it and there are no special abilities. There are some bombs in here and I should save removal for key cards. Turn 4 sequencing is bad. I think once the Attended Healer hit the table with a Ghastly Gloomhunter hit the table, the game slanted to OP.  I didn't have the removal come up to deal with either cards. I even tried to Fissure Wizard to dig for one - trading a Mountain for another one.

Game 4 (Win vs WU Fliers on Play)
Real time notes during match: Need to remember MDFC are lands all the time. Mill enough to get to 8 cards in graveyard, Menace on Blackbloom Rogue. I guess I am glad I didn't play as land after all. really thought about what creatures I wanted to remove - make sure there was high value. All the removal really helped until my board got stabilized. Mind drain was good timing.

MVP: Blackbloom Rogue

• I learned from Game 3, as I just let the Kitesail Cleric keep pinging me for 1 damage while I held Feed the Swarm and Roil Eruption.
• Even on turn 2 and passed with full mana for both cards.
• Turn 4, I had Roil Eruption, Feed the Swarm, Mind Drain, and Thundering Rebuke in hand. This turn, I chose NOT to play the Blackbloom Rogue as a land, hence the point above of "remember MDFC are lands" because I remember thinking, dang no land. 
• Turn 5. Fearless Fledging is definitely a threat to get rid of. I see OP has 2 blue mana and not sure what counters could stop the Roil Eruption. If they do counter it, I can cast Feed the Swarm on it. I still have the Thundering Rebuke and I fed the Tazeem Raptor to the Swarm. OP cast Deliberate at end of turn and not sure if Scry bottom 2 is good or bad. It's better than alternative.
• Turn 6. More removal comes. I wanted to get rid of Windrider Wizard before they could get a free card. 
• Turn 7. I am seeing OP with 2 cards last turn and this turn. Glad they left only 2 mana up and it's time for Mana Drain to prevent a kicker card being cast, as well as fill that graveyard for my Blackbloom Rogue. 
• Turn 8. Get some more creatures on the board and keep the Rebuke for a threat. Interestingly, if they cast one creature, I hope to be able to kill it with the Rebuke and the Menace on Blackbloom can get through. 
• Turn 9. And there are creatures to block Menace. But doing the math, OP has to block, so they have to block with either the two Clerics or Cleric + Riptide. I can either kill both Clerics or at least the riptide. So I'm happy with either block configuration. It's nice that they have no cards, therefore I have full information. In hindsight that I didn't think about but if they had green to worry about, I should have left the Stinger and Guide out of the attack. OP should have blocked with both Clerics - Might of Murasa can do 10 damage. 1 Damage and milling 3 cards was not important and should not have extended myself here - gave myself an opportunity to lose.

Game 5 (Loss vs UB Rogues on Play)
MVP: Mana Drain for OP
So this is interesting starting hand with 2 Swamp and Mountain and Felidar Retreat. Seems reasonable ramp with Gloomhunter (T2) and Skydancer (T3). 

• Turn 3 to bring out the Stinger to block a Duelist was smart but then OP casted Feed the Swarm. 
• Turn 4 cast the Fissure Wizard to dig for a Plains. On OP turn, Soaring Thought-Thief comes out, I think this is when the clock starts ticking. 
• Turn 5 - Plains appeared. In hindsight, I still think the Felidar Retreat is the right play but I don't have that much of a wall to allow me to maximize the Retreat. OP then casted Mana Drain, which hurts as there was an MDFC in there, as well as combining Blight-Priest and Gloomhunter. 
• Turn 6 - Blood Beckoning is actually really good with their mill deck. I find Nighthawk Scavenger. Decision - do I use all my mana to bring back Blight-Priest as well to play with the life gain from my two fliers. Unless I draw a land next turn, I can't cast both cards. I take just the Scavenger so I can play it this turn.
• Turn 6 OP: OP has a lot of value in Carver and on their turn, Skydiver is now a 6/2 creature. I decide NOT to block with Scavenger. Probably should have done that. What is my plan - I'll eventually have to block. I guess I was hoping for a land to make Gloomhunter to a 2/2 and Scavenger can be 4/4. 
• Turn 7 - little Guide. Even a land would have been nice. Gloomhunter could have blocked the Skydiver. Though Blackbloom Rogue from OP could smash me for 6. This is when it's close to inevitable that I'll be taking the L. Felidar just left alone to do nothing. 

Adjustment between Game 5 & Game 6 - I removed Felidar Retreat and the Plains and added more creatures. 

Game 6 (Loss vs Naya Landfall on Draw)
MVP: Prowling Felidar 
My son played this game and there was likely one key play where my son wanted to remove Spitfire with Vanquish the Weak, where I would have removed the TukTuk Rubblefort. A very KEY mistake I made - I think he would have done is a turn where we waited to cast Deadly Alliance on the OP turn. We should have cast on our turn when their mana is tapped. They cast the Sejiri Shelter to protect it. That would have changed the game. So this game could have turned out differently but no guarantee for a win. 

Summary & Learnings from this Deck

I focused on cards picked early. I took a Rogue with Mill, so I was like "must collect synergy" with Rogues and Mill. But Rogue/Mill is blue/black rogues. I was on this mission to "collect"/get all the Rogues not really understanding the set/meta/archetypes. 

When I started adding Red, I should have switched to Party and gone after non Rogues. Having 3 Skydancers and Stingers didn't really help give the deck enough powers. I didn't really have enough Mill cards to make a difference. The Blackbloom Rogue was MVP one game with Menaced by Graveyard 8, but it was probably too much work to be a huge focus. The Nighthawk Scavenger was helped out Skydancer and Feed the Swarm. 

In hindsight of looking at the draft, I think there are two places in Pack 2 where I should have taken some red Warriors instead of Black cards but otherwise I think I took the right cards. I think this would have changed my deck construction as well. So play to the archetypes strength and not a pre-conceived notion. I think I am fine with "drafting the hard way" but I think I need to know how to value cards in a deck and not in a vacuum.